On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, what led to a humanitarian catastrophe and mass migration. Italy received many refugees from Ukraine and ranked 4th in the world in terms of the number of refugees received. This study aims to test the hypothesis of the impact of the Russian war in Ukraine on the dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy. To assess the impact of migration on the COVID-19 dynamics, a XGBoost model was built. We used data from the World Health Organization on morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in Italy for the pilot study. We verified the model for the period 01/25/22 – 02/23/22. To assess the impact of migration, a forecast was built for the period 02/24/22 - 03/25/22. Model’s performance was estimated using mean absolute percentage error. As a result, the accuracy of forecasting the COVID-19 dynamics in Italy for 01/25/22 – 02/23/22 was 98.4% for new cases and 99.7% for fatal cases. The accuracy of forecasting the COVID-19 dynamics in Italy for 02/24/22 - 03/25/22 was 95.8% for new cases and 99.5% for fatal cases. A comparison of the model’s accuracy for different periods suggests that migration from Ukraine is an insignificant factor in changing the dynamics of morbidity. At the same time, it does not affect mortality. The reasons for the impact on the dynamics of COVID-19 are the lack of control over the medical histories of refugees, the low percentage of vaccinations (36.96%) and the population, received a booster dose (1.76%) in Ukraine. At the same time, the high level of vaccination in Italy (75.98% of the population with a booster dose) smoothed out the impact of migration on mortality. Therefore, additional COVID-19 control measures in Italy aimed at Ukrainian refugees are necessary, such as facilitating access to testing, medical care and booster vaccinations.